Tuesday Forecast: Warm and breezy weather turns cooler and stormy
October 11, 2021 Morning Forecast
HASTINGS, Neb. (KSNB) - After a really nice start to the work week with full sunshine and pretty comfortable temperatures, a big change in the weather is coming as a strong upper level trough is set to blast through the region bringing the potential for rain, snow, severe weather, and quite a bit of wind to the region into the day on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Through Monday evening, the weather should remain quiet and fairly comfortable with clear skies and fairly light winds. Through the overnight hours, skies should continue to stay mainly clear with light and variable winds. We start Tuesday with sunny to mostly sunny skies across central Nebraska, with skies becoming mostly to partly sunny by the afternoon. There will be a small chance for an isolated shower or two in the afternoon but the bulk of any rain we see likely will come Tuesday night and into the overnight hours. As a strong upper level trough emerges from the west, a surface low pressure system will develop and deepen across northeastern Colorado before pushing into western Nebraska by Tuesday evening. Ahead of this, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west with strong to severe thunderstorms being a good possibility. As the evening wears on, storms are expected to quickly develop into a line before racing to the east across the state and through central Nebraska. Most, if not all of the thunderstorm activity should exit the area by early Wednesday morning.
The severe weather threat will cover most of the state as the SPC has outlined nearly the entire state under a marginal risk for severe weather - meaning isolated severe storms will be possible. Across much of central and into southeastern Nebraska though, we are covered by a slight risk for severe weather - meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Just to our south, an enhanced risk for severe weather is in place across central Kansas where numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible. Initially, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with areas of heavy rain. As storms transition into a more linear system, the severe threat will transition to damaging winds gusts and heavy rain. For the Tri-Cities, the main impact from these storms will likely be wind and heavy rain as this line is forecast to push through central Nebraska between midnight and 4 AM Wednesday morning.
As far as temperatures go, look for low temperatures tonight to fall into the lower and middle 40s for most of the area, which is pretty typical of this time of year.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be warm with temperatures reaching from the upper 60s to low 70s across northern Nebraska to the upper 70s for the Tri-Cities and into southern Nebraska. These warmer temperatures will also come with strong southerly winds ahead of the approaching storm system. Southeast winds should increase to 15 to 25 MPH by the afternoon with wind gusts up to 40 MPH possible!
On the backside of the departing low pressure system, our winds will swing around to the west and northwest as we head into Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain very strong with wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH possible on Wednesday. The westerly and northwesterly winds will help pull cooler air into the region on Wednesday with temperatures falling into the 40s, 50s, and 60s for afternoon highs. We should see mainly sunny skies by Wednesday afternoon.
The extended forecast is highlighted by continued cool weather for the remainder of the week and the potential for some widespread frost across the state. Temperatures by Thursday morning are expected to dip into the mid and upper 30s in the Tri-Cities and likely stay in that range Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon temperatures stay in the low 60s on Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures dip into the mid 50s for Friday with a mix of sun and clouds and a small chance for some showers. We warm up a bit into the mid and upper 60s for the weekend and into early next week.
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